As thick fog blanketed Tagaytay and relentless rains battered the capital, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) officially issued a yellow rainfall warning on the morning of July 21, 2025, for Metro Manila and several surrounding provinces.

But this isn’t just another gloomy day. This warning is a clear signal that things could escalate quickly. Here’s why this alert is more urgent than it seems—and what you should do right now to stay safe.

What Does a Yellow Rainfall Warning Really Mean?

A yellow rainfall warning from PAGASA is not your usual weather update. It’s a localized, short-term alert valid for only two to three hours. Unlike the broader 24-hour advisories, this type of warning zeroes in on specific municipalities using Doppler radar technology to monitor real-time rainfall intensity.

Issued at 8:00 a.m. Monday, the warning covers Metro Manila, Bataan, Cavite, parts of Zambales including Botolan, Cabangan, San Felipe, San Marcelino, San Antonio, San Narciso, Olongapo, Subic, and Castillejos, along with several municipalities in Batangas such as Tuy, Nasugbu, Lian, Calatagan, Balayan, Laurel, and Calaca.

Meanwhile, light to moderate rain with occasional heavy downpours is also expected to continue over Nueva Ecija and Quezon within the next three hours. Similar weather conditions are forecast for Tarlac, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Pampanga, and additional towns in Zambales and Batangas.

The Driving Force Behind the Downpour: Habagat Meets Crising

What’s fueling all this rain? The heavy downpours are the result of the combined effects of the southwest monsoon, locally known as Habagat, and Tropical Depression Crising (CrisingPH). These systems are working together to funnel warm, moisture-rich air across Luzon, resulting in continuous rains and thick fog in highland areas.

In Tagaytay, visibility drastically dropped on July 19 as thick fog settled over the city. Roads became difficult to navigate, and locals reported near-zero visibility in some areas. With Crising enhancing the southwest monsoon, these weather conditions are expected to linger—and possibly worsen.

Why Waiting for the Next Update Could Be a Mistake

While PAGASA’s next warning is scheduled for 11 a.m., residents are urged not to wait until then. The risk of flash flooding and road disruptions is rising by the hour. Many of the areas under alert are low-lying or flood-prone, and even light rain can quickly turn dangerous when drainage systems overflow.

Unlike general forecasts, yellow rainfall warnings are issued to alert communities of short-term weather events that could develop into something more severe. Today’s warning is a call to act, not a prediction to ignore.

What You Need to Do Right Now

The weather bureau has advised residents and local disaster risk management offices to monitor conditions closely. Those living in flood-prone zones should stay indoors if possible and avoid traveling through affected roads. If you must leave, keep a close eye on road advisories and weather updates.

Homes should be secured, especially outdoor items that might be blown away or carried off by floodwaters. It’s also wise to prepare emergency supplies in advance, including clean drinking water, flashlights, fully charged battery-powered radios, first-aid kits, and non-perishable food items.

Families should discuss emergency evacuation routes and keep their mobile phones charged and close by in case of sudden alerts.

The Tagaytay Situation: A Visual Warning

What’s happening in Tagaytay right now offers a glimpse into what other highland areas could soon experience. On July 19, photos circulated online showing the entire city blanketed in dense fog. Tourists couldn’t see the Taal Volcano from viewing decks, and the roads were barely visible even with headlights on. The city, known for its cool breeze and scenic views, turned into a gray and ghostly landscape in just a few hours.

Are More Rains Coming?

With Habagat still active and Crising not yet dissipating, meteorologists warn that more rain is on the horizon. The next 24 to 48 hours will be crucial in determining how widespread the flooding could become. There is also the possibility that Crising will enhance the monsoon further, leading to more rainfall in Central Luzon and even the Visayas.

This means the yellow rainfall warning may soon be upgraded to orange or red in certain areas. When that happens, the threat becomes significantly more dangerous, with evacuation and emergency response protocols likely to be activated.

Don’t Let the Color Fool You: Yellow Means Now

It’s easy to underestimate a yellow rainfall warning, especially when the skies only look gray. But yellow is meant to give you a head start. By the time a red warning is issued, it might be too late to move to higher ground or secure your home.

PAGASA’s layered color system exists to help communities take action before the worst hits. Yellow means you still have time—time to prepare, time to act, time to avoid disaster.

Final Thoughts: Stay Alert, Stay Dry, Stay Safe

Today’s yellow rainfall warning may be short-term, but its implications are long-term. With the southwest monsoon still active and weather systems like Crising in the area, the potential for escalation is very real. Residents across Metro Manila, Central Luzon, and Southern Tagalog should treat this alert as more than just a weather update—it’s a wake-up call.

Stay connected to reliable sources of weather information. Check official PAGASA updates regularly, follow your local government’s social media for announcements, and don’t underestimate the power of water when it comes fast and hard.