The political landscape in the Philippines is often a volatile terrain, shifting suddenly with the winds of legal and international pressure. On the heels of the highly publicized situation involving former President Rodrigo Duterte, a new political and legal crisis is now looming over one of his most loyal lieutenants, Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa.

The central issue is the potential issuance of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the subsequent, now legally binding, obligation of the Philippine government under the administration of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. to comply with the order and surrender the sitting Senator.

This developing situation—a collision of domestic politics, international law, and personal drama—has thrown the political establishment into turmoil, exposing the deep fissures within the ruling alliance and challenging the very core of the Marcos administration’s foreign and legal policy.

The Inescapable ICC Mandate: From Choice to Obligation

The discussion was brought to a head by legal experts, including an unnamed ICC Assistant Attorney, who issued a clear statement regarding the Philippines’ legal responsibilities. The expert affirmed that if a warrant is indeed issued against Senator dela Rosa, the Marcos administration “has to enforce his arrest and surrender to the ICC as part of our continuing obligations to the court.”

This is not a matter of political goodwill but of legal duty, reinforced by the recent decision concerning the jurisdiction challenge filed by former President Duterte. While the Philippines withdrew from the Rome Statute—the treaty establishing the ICC—in March 2019, the ICC retains jurisdiction over crimes allegedly committed while the country was still a member, particularly the period covering the controversial “War on Drugs” campaign. The actions of the ICC, therefore, are not an infringement on sovereignty but a continuation of a process that began when the Philippines was a signatory.

Senator dela Rosa, as the former Philippine National Police (PNP) Chief and the architect of “Oplan Tokhang” (the primary mechanism of the drug war), is a central figure in the ICC’s investigation into Crimes Against Humanity. His position makes him a logical next target, following the judicial precedents set in The Hague. The ICC’s legal affirmation effectively cuts off any remaining political or sovereign defense the administration might attempt to employ on the Senator’s behalf. The duty to enforce is clear, placing President Marcos Jr. in a difficult, unavoidable position.

The Political Schism: The Fragile Alliance Shatters

The legal obligation has profound political implications, most significantly accelerating the disintegration of the alliance between the Marcos and Duterte political families.

For a time, President Marcos Jr. attempted to navigate the political tightrope. He initially expressed reservations about the ICC’s right to investigate, standing on the principle of national sovereignty and the argument that the domestic justice system was functional. This initial stance was seen by many Duterte Diehard Supporters (DDS) as a necessary form of political protection for their former President and his allies.

However, the relentless pressure from the ICC, coupled with the political friction and constant criticism from the pro-Duterte faction, seemingly forced a strategic shift in the Marcos administration. When the ICC rejected the jurisdictional challenges, the administration’s defensive posture became legally untenable. The compliance with international law now takes precedence, regardless of the political cost.

The host of the video source points out the perceived hypocrisy and lack of gratitude from the Duterte camp towards the Marcos administration’s initial efforts, arguing that the constant back-biting and betrayal ultimately led Marcos to abandon the attempt to shield the former officials. As the host dramatically stated, the Marcos administration was initially “protecting” them, but was then “stabbed in the back” and eventually “in the front,” leading to the withdrawal of protection.

This political fallout is critical. The compliance with an ICC warrant against a sitting Senator would be viewed by the DDS base as the ultimate act of betrayal, further solidifying the narrative of a political war between the two most powerful families in the country. The former alliance, once deemed an unstoppable force in Philippine politics, is now revealed to be a fragile partnership of convenience, shattered by the weight of international law and irreconcilable political differences.

The General’s Private Fear: Bravado vs. Reality

Perhaps the most human and captivating element of this ongoing drama is the analysis of Senator Dela Rosa’s personal state of mind. The video host, drawing on observation and political insight, paints a picture of a man riddled with anxiety, despite his well-known public image as a tough, action-oriented former police general.

The host recalls Dela Rosa’s history of emotional outbursts, noting that the Senator has often been seen crying during Senate hearings, suggesting a man whose emotional core is more vulnerable than his public persona suggests. More tellingly, the host recalls the day his former superior, former President Duterte, was reportedly taken into custody. While Senator Bong Go, another loyal ally, was visibly present at the airport and involved in the turmoil, Senator Dela Rosa was allegedly “uncontactable”—his phone “out of coverage” for a full day.

This alleged disappearance is interpreted as a manifestation of a deep-seated “fear of being jailed.” His earlier, often-repeated statements challenging his critics—including Senator Antonio Trillanes IV—to “go ahead and arrest me” now ring hollow. When faced with the cold, hard reality of international arrest and confinement at The Hague, the mask of the brave General appears to have slipped, revealing the terror of a high-profile official facing a loss of freedom, a fear that seems to overshadow his loyalty or his public commitment to his actions.

This personal drama adds a layer of emotional resonance to the legal proceedings. The Senator’s bravado has always been a key component of his political brand; a retreat or an emotional breakdown would be a devastating blow to his image and to the political movement he represents.

The Architect of Accountability: The Role of Trillanes

No discussion of the ICC proceedings would be complete without acknowledging the central role of Senator Antonio Trillanes IV. The video host confirmed that Trillanes is the primary architect of the complaint filed with the ICC, turning a long-running domestic feud into an international legal action.

Trillanes, a staunch critic and political opponent of the former President, used the international legal framework to achieve accountability where he felt the domestic system failed. His action, initially dismissed by the former administration as a political stunt, has proven to be a strategic, long-term legal maneuver that has effectively bypassed local judicial constraints and forced the Philippine government to reckon with its international obligations.

The fact that the government is now mandated to enforce a warrant stemming from a complaint initiated by a key opposition figure is a staggering victory for Trillanes and the opposition movement. It demonstrates the enduring power of international checks and balances against domestic political impunity, regardless of the political figure’s power or popularity.

Addressing the Distraction: Corruption and Flood Control

In a notable segment, the video host addressed the critics, particularly the DDS base, who argue that the government should prioritize domestic issues like flood control and corruption over the ICC case.

The host refutes this, arguing that the government is fully capable of handling multiple issues simultaneously. Furthermore, the host suggests that the Marcos administration is, in fact, taking significant, unprecedented steps to combat internal corruption, particularly the massive problem of graft within infrastructure projects.

The host cited President Marcos Jr.’s direct involvement in naming corrupt contractors and district engineers, a move described as a “first time in the history of the country” for a President to take such a strong stance against a syndicate operating within the bureaucracy. This defense serves to counter the narrative that Marcos is ignoring the country’s domestic problems, positioning the administration as a government of due process that is building strong cases against corrupt officials to ensure convictions, rather than merely making arrests that might later be overturned on technicalities.

While this defense of the anti-corruption drive is important, the juxtaposition underscores the current political tension: the government is forced to defend its commitment to domestic accountability while simultaneously being required by international law to facilitate accountability for the actions of a former President and a sitting Senator.

The End Game: The General’s Choice

The ultimate question now rests on the timing and the execution of the potential warrant. Will Senator dela Rosa fulfill his past vow to face the consequences, or will his documented “fear of being jailed” lead him to desperate measures?

The legal reality is stark: the ICC’s jurisdiction is affirmed, the Marcos administration’s obligation to cooperate is clear, and the political alliance that once provided a shield is now dissolved. The path forward for Senator Dela Rosa is legally narrow and politically perilous.

The coming weeks will be a defining moment for Senator Dela Rosa, the Marcos administration, and the Philippines’ commitment to international accountability. The General’s reckoning, long foretold, now appears imminent, marking a decisive and likely irreversible turn in the nation’s political trajectory.